We must anticipate a future without oil in order to prevent global crisis

By Jerome le Carrou

September 22, 2005 | According to the American geologist King Hubbert, the production of oil will reach its peak (the Hubbert peak) in Middle East around 2010.

Hubbert announced in the 1950s that American production of oil would reach its peak in 1970.

He was right.

If he's right again, around 2010, half of the oil resources in the Middle East would have been used up. Middle East oil resources are the most important ones.

For the first time, the shortage of oil will not be politic but simply geologic. In the '70s, OPEC artificially created an oil shortage for political reasons.

It's also the same political reasons that define the "black gold" as important enough to drive governments crazy, especially now that decisions-makers know oil resources are going to decrease slowly.

We can always wonder why Iraq has been attacked recently, but part of the reason may be that oil resources are important and easy to extract. The cost or oil extraction in Iraq is not even the half of the cost to extract oil from Alaska.

Some researchers said we will lack oil around 2040 if we continue to consume it at the same rhythm. Researchers disagree, with some of them based their projections on the fact that the consumption will still be constant. However, this fact seems to be irrelevant.

First of all, in the last few years, two new, big consumers entered the market (China and India) and changed the oil consumption formulas. Secondly, the consumption can't stay regular with all the governments aware of the upcoming oil extinction. It's easy to understand -- if tomorrow on the news, I hear that there are 10,000 liters of water available in the city before the city runs out of water forever, I think I will rush and get as more as I can. As a result, I will increase the consumption of water, which mean we will be out of water sooner. This principle is the same for the oil consumption.

All in all, it means that the end of oil resources can happen one day around 2030 at the earliest, and fortunately not before 2060 at the latest.

This sounds like a bad movie, but this time it's real. If tomorrow, NASA announces that a giant asteroid will crash into the earth in 10 years, people will think about that every day. It will be continually on the news. I am sure our society would try to make plans to survive. In the oil case, it's different -- if you try to explain to people that one day we will lack oil, there aren't any huge reactions.

The end of oil production is not as impressive as an asteroid coming to strike us, but the consequences are pretty much the same.

Our governments are too conscious of the consequences, and the general panic it will bring. If tomorrow, we have a breaking news on TV, saying that in 10 years there won't be any oil left, I am afraid of the general reactions. I think everyone will rush and make reserves. Following a pessimistic view, we can imagine wars, chaos, etc., leading our world to an unimaginable crisis.

The first mission of the government is to warn its population of the reality and what's bound to happen before it's too late. I don't even want to imagine how people will react if they are not warned beforehand. When (and not if) one day we won't have oil anymore, I hope we will be ready to anticipate the brutal changes, instead of waiting passively for the last drop to be swallowed.

I think that nowadays, there is not enough attention paid to prevention. Recently in New Orleans, the terrible human catastrophe due to the hurricane Katrina, shows that we are definitely not ready to anticipate, and yet anticipation stands for our best ally.

We don't have choice but to anticipate; oil resources are not infinite. We have to start acting now.

We have to restrict ourselves. We have to reduce the consumption right now. We have to find substitutes. Some scientists say we can use ethanol instead or gas, but nothing really concrete has been found now. That's the official voice. I think that these new energies are available, but our governments are protecting the powerful oil lobbying by refusing to distribute them.

Nowadays, we are beginning to see some consequences of the rise of oil prices, Delta Air Lines and Northwest, two majors airlines, have a huge deficit, and have important economical problems. The oil barrel is too expensive, kerosene is not affordable as it was in the past.

Another example, this summer, I was in France, I fill the tank of my car with only 40 liters, it costs me 65 euros ($72). A few days ago, the prices rose again, you can buy one liter for 1.5 euro.

In the United States, it's the same phenomenon, even if it's still a little bit cheaper than in Europe, but I bet the prices are not going to decrease, unfortunately.

You can see how important oil is to our everyday expenses, after the hurricane Katrina destroyed all the gulf coast oil resources, the prices went high. In the U,S,, oil consumers are mad because they have to pay more money than ever to just use their cars, or take the plane. But what if next summer, we missed this summer 2005, what if next summer, we have to spend $100 to fill our tank. We will have to admit that during summer 2005, oil prices were pretty cheap.

The main question is what's going to happen concretely? What's going to change in our lives?

According to some ecologists, it will be the end of globalization, end of the aeronautics industry, as tickets won't be affordable anymore due to the high prices of oil. It will also be the end of international tourism, end of economic growth, the crash of stock exchange, the crash of the dollar, high unemployment rates, demonstrations. But as oil is also essential in agriculture, its extinction could mean not enough food for the entire planet.

To put it in a nutshell, we have to start thinking about our future. We have to anticipate, we have to start acting to preserve what we still have before it's too late. The brutal change might be unbearable if not anticipated, but at least we are aware of what approximatelly will happen -- and when.

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